The 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race will come down to the regular-season finale. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is the rightful favorite, but is facing competition from the historic season of Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua. If the Texans qualify for the postseason, Stroud is the undeniable winner.
Stroud has positioned the Texans to advance to the playoffs, which was not the expectation heading into the 2023 campaign. The Texans control their own destiny. A victory over their AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts would clinch the No. 7 seed for the Texans regardless of other results. The OROY conversation would essentially end there, and understandably so.
Stroud ranks second in passing yardage per game (274.6) among all quarterbacks with a minimum of 10 appearances. He’d rank higher than ninth in total yardage (3,844) if not for a late-season concussion that sent him to the sidelines for two games.
Stroud's rookie campaign has been littered with historic moments. In Week 9, the former Ohio State standout broke the single-game rookie record with 470 passing yards and five touchdowns in the Texans' 39-37 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. All in all, Stroud has thrown 21 touchdowns versus just five interceptions this season. No starting quarterback has thrown fewer picks than Stroud. His ability to take care of the football has been outstanding as a first-year quarterback.
In most years, Stroud would be a runaway winner. He's not. It's a testament to the campaign Nacua is enjoying. Much like the Texans, qualifying for the playoffs wasn't necessarily the expectation in Tinseltown. But sizable contributions from unlikely sources such as Nacua helped the Rams clinch a postseason berth prior to Sunday's regular-season finale with the 49ers. It's precisely why the Rams plan to rest multiple starters, including quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Nacua, who's as important to the Rams' 2023 success as anyone, will suit up, at least for a portion. Why? Nacua is merely 29 yards away from breaking the single-season receiving yardage record for rookies.
The No. 177 overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft has recorded 1,445 receiving yards. Nacua ranks fourth among all receivers in that department and has an excellent chance to climb into the top three this weekend. The single-season record is currently owned by Houston Oilers legend Bill Groman, who totaled 1,473 yards as a rookie pass-catcher in 1960. If all goes according to plan on Sunday, Nacua will shatter a rookie receiving record that's stood for 63 years. It represents an incredible feat that no previous standout first-year receiver has managed to achieve. That catapults Nacua next to Stroud in the OROY conversation.
It's rare to have two worthy OROY winners this late into the season, but the 2023 campaign has provided us with legitimately two historically great candidates. In a perfect world, Stroud and Nacua would share the award and neither talent would feel snubbed. Quarterback achievements are typically viewed more fondly by voters, however. If Stroud and the Texans qualify for the postseason, the debate will settle in his favor.
