Several underdog teams on NFL wild-card weekend are capable of executing an upset. A pair of division winners, the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are among the underdogs. Elsewhere, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins are among those being offered little credit in their respective matchups with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
Any team looking to defy the odds will rely on big-time performances from underrated contributors. These talents are capable of serving as X-factors. We've identified three potential X-factors in this weekend's matchups.
JAYDEN REED, WR, PACKERS
The Green Bay Packers own the league's youngest roster. Head coach Matt LaFleur wasn't expected to usher them to the postseason so quickly after a public breakup with long-time franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yet, here the Packers are, traveling to Dallas for a date with the Cowboys after claiming victory in three consecutive contests to conclude their season.
Rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed has been crucial to their success. In Reed's final two regular-season appearances, the former Michigan State standout accounted for 201 receiving yards and two touchdowns while averaging an unfathomable 33.5 yards per reception.
The Cowboys feature a deep and talented secondary. Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland will pay close attention to Reed on a snap-by-snap basis. If the Packers upset the Cowboys, it likely means Reed produced a game-changing play.
C.J. STROUD, QB, TEXANS
The Texans are one of two aforementioned home underdogs. That feels borderline disrespectful considering they roster a historically great rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud. The odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud helped Houston go from fourth to first in the AFC South in a year.
No team turned around their fortunes in 2023 quite like Houston did. While plenty of credit should be bestowed upon first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, Stroud is at the forefront of their shocking success. Stroud finished third in passing yardage per game (273.9) among all quarterbacks and has already earned face-of-the-franchise honors.
The matchup versus the Cleveland Browns will be difficult. Jim Schwartz's stingy defense is allowing a league-low 270.2 yards of offense per game, powered by a top-ranked passing defense that's giving up 164.7 yards per contest. Houston’s hopes of advancing to the divisional round rely on Stroud getting the better of Schwartz.
PUKA NACUA, WR, RAMS
The Los Angeles Rams are one of the more surprising teams in the playoffs. Initially thought to sport too top-heavy of a roster, general manager Les Snead did an outstanding job filling out the 53 with little-known gems. None shined brighter than fifth-round rookie receiver Puka Nacua.
Nacua set the single-season record for most receiving yards by a first-year player with 1,486. Nacua’s emergence opposite Cooper Kupp gave quarterback Matthew Stafford a one-two punch he can lean on. Nacua and Kupp are two players the Detroit Lions defense must be wary of this weekend.
The Lions have been susceptible to the pass all season long. Aaron Glenn's unit has allowed a 27th-ranked 247.4 passing yards per contest. In Week 17, Cowboys wideout Ceedee Lamb torched their secondary for 227 receiving yards. The Rams require an eye-opening performance from Nacua if they're to outdo the Lions.
