Miami Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was ineffective throughout Saturday's 26-7 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs. Tagovailoa completed 20-of-39 passing attempts for 199 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The 51.3% completion percentage was a season-low mark. Tagovailoa is no longer the surefire long-term franchise quarterback in Miami.
Tagovailoa spearheaded a lackluster offensive performance, scoring seven points and gaining 264 yards. That's 22.2 points less than their weekly average output (29.2) during the season, and 137.3 yards less than the league-leading 401.3 they entered Saturday with. Situational football was equally as disappointing. The Dolphins went 1-of-12 on third-down attempts and were sloppily whistled for eight penalties.
Tagovailoa's Dolphins aren't built for competitive January football in Kansas City—or anywhere outside Hard Rock Stadium. Miami went to Kansas City because they dropped a Week 18 contest to the Buffalo Bills that decided the AFC East, a defeat that placed the Dolphins on a collision course with inevitable disappointment. The Bills completed the regular-season sweep over a Dolphins franchise that can't displace their biggest rival. The week prior, the Dolphins suffered an embarrassing 56-19 defeat to the Baltimore Ravens, an actual Super Bowl contender. The writing was on the wall then.
Tagovailoa is scheduled to enter the final year of his rookie contract in 2024. General manager Chris Grier previously triggered Tagovailoa's fifth-year option, which will pay him a fully guaranteed $23.17 million next season. Teams rarely allow franchise quarterbacks to reach fate-deciding seasons, but that's exactly what's going to happen with Tagovailoa, and understandably so.
Under no circumstances should the Dolphins sign Tagovailoa to a long-term extension this offseason. It's exactly what Tagovailoa and his representation would like to happen, but their leverage floundered the moment Tagovailoa failed to lead Miami to a competitive playoff performance. Tagovailoa is going to have to earn a long-term deal by experiencing postseason success in 2024.
Three quarterbacks from Tagovailoa's 2020 NFL Draft class have already signed multi-year extensions. Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert recently signed extensions with their respective teams totaling an average contract value of $261.6 million. Those are the ballpark parameters for a Tagovailoa deal in a ballooning quarterback market. The Dolphins can't even consider it right now.
It's a slightly odd way to feel about a quarterback who led the NFL in passing yards (4,624) this season. Tagovailoa also posted career-highs in passing touchdowns (29) and completion percentage (69.3%) while mastering Mike McDaniel's offense. But postseason success was expected, no, demanded, by a franchise that hasn't won a playoff game since 2000, one year before Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots began dominating the division. Falling short brings the long-term future into question.
The Dolphins aren't in a position to replace Tagovailoa this offseason. They enter their offseason approximately $42 million over the cap, according to Spotrac, which helps firmly take an aggressive move for a veteran quarterback off the table. Grier doesn’t possess a top-20 overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, taking them out of the Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and Jayden Daniels sweepstakes. And in fairness, Tagovailoa doesn't deserve to be replaced. He deserves to be put on notice, which is precisely what occurred in Saturday's aftermath.
