Kansas City Chiefs superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes just became a three-time Lombardi winner and three-time Super Bowl MVP. Unsurprisingly, that makes Mahomes the early betting favorite to win next year’s regular-season Most Valuable Player award, according to BetOnline. Mahomes is viewed as the hands-on choice to dethrone reigning champion Lamar Jackson, who claimed his second MVP honor this season.
Jackson was the rightful regular-season winner, but competition will be fierce for football’s most prestigious individual honor next season. With the NFL in its golden era of quarterback play, various signal callers will attempt to outdo Jackson and Mahomes. BetOnline’s NFL futures prop betting landscape for the 2024 MVP award has taken shape. The top options shake out as follows:
Patrick Mahomes (13/2)
Josh Allen (9/1)
Joe Burrow (9/1)
Jordan Love (10/1)
C.J. Stroud (11/1)
Justin Herbert (12/1)
Lamar Jackson (14/1)
Brock Purdy (16/1)
Dak Prescott (18/1)
Aaron Rodgers/Jalen Hurts (20/1)
THE FAVORITE AND MY PICK: PATRICK MAHOMES
Naysayers spent the entire regular season doubting Mahomes only to look foolish at its conclusion. In fairness, a weakened supporting cast, particularly at wide receiver, did lead to a dip in statistical production. Mahomes threw 27 touchdowns in 16 regular-season appearances, his lowest TD total since his second season as a starter in 2019 (26). Mahomes also threw a career-high 14 interceptions as the Chiefs averaged 7.4 fewer points per game (21.8) than they did last season (29.2).
None of that concerns me heading into the 2024 campaign. General manager Brett Veach has the opportunity to improve the Chiefs' pass-catching unit this offseason. The 2024 NFL Draft features a richly deep group of receivers, and Veach will almost certainly select an instant contributor with the No. 32 overall selection. Sophomore Rashee Rice should also showcase improvement and Travis Kelce is returning for another season. Mahomes will have the pieces in place.
THE REIGNING CHAMPION: LAMAR JACKSON
It's borderline disrespectful to see Jackson listed as just the seventh-highest favorite (14/1) to win MVP. Jackson, the reigning champion, is one of three active multi-time winners, joining Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Jackson deserves more respect than BetOnline is currently showing him.
The dual-threat Jackson was electric throughout 2023, accounting for 4,499 total yards of offense and 29 touchdowns. There's little reason to believe Jackson will experience a drastic drop-off in 2024. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken returns, the majority of the offensive line remains under contract, as do Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews. Zay Flowers should also take on a larger role as a sophomore. Jackson can replicate this season's efforts.
A WORTHY UNDERDOG: C.J. STROUD
If you're looking for an exciting underdog, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is available at 11/1. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year will set his sights on capturing advanced hardware next season.
Stroud finished third in passing yards per game (273.9) among all quarterbacks, and he would have finished first if you added minimum qualifiers. Only Joe Flacco (five games) and Kirk Cousins (eight games) were more productive on a per-week basis. All in all, Stroud threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns while enjoying a historically productive debut campaign that saw the former Ohio State standout even set the single-game rookie record in passing yards with 470.
Stroud led the Texans to a shocking 10 regular-season victories and an AFC South division title. The Texans then won a playoff game. The franchise is well-positioned to experience similar success in 2024. If they do, Stroud will be an MVP frontrunner.
