The Green Bay Packers selected former USC running back MarShawn Lloyd with the No. 88 overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was drafted to support veteran free-agent signing Josh Jacobs, but a peek into head coach Matt LaFleur's backfield usage history indicates Lloyd may have a bigger role in the offense than the general public realizes.
LaFleur inherited a starting-caliber back in Aaron Jones when he took over the Packers in 2019. Jones earned his first of three 1,000-yard seasons in LaFleur's debut campaign. Despite establishing himself as a worthy bellcow, Jones' snap share decreased with each passing season under LaFleur from 2019 to 2023.
Jones played a career-high 62% snap share throughout 2019. That usage decreased to 60% in 2020, and 58% in 2021 and 2022. This past season, Jones' snap share percentage plummeted to a personal-low 49%, per RotoBaller. Jones was released from his contract by the Packers in a cap-clearing decision after the season.
Jacobs was signed as Jones’ replacement to a four-year contract worth $48 million that contains an exit route after the first season. The 2022 rushing champion endured a difficult season in 2023 as injuries and inconsistent play derailed his campaign. A quad injury limited Jacobs to playing 74.5% of all Las Vegas Raiders snaps as he ended the year on season-ending IR.
Given LaFleur’s history, it’s straightforward to anticipate him limiting Jacobs’ snap count to keep him healthy in a backfield rotation. Jacobs is entering his age-27 season. When Jones was 27, LaFleur reduced his snap share percentage to 58%. I expect a similar fall-off for Jacobs in 2024.
The biggest roadblock to Lloyd's rookie-season role isn't Jacobs now that we've proven the analytics indicate a timeshare. The bigger challenge may be the presence of A.J. Dillon, who re-signed with the Packers via a one-year deal earlier this offseason. When Jones played a career-low 49% snap share percentage this past season, Dillon earned the remaining 51%.
One thing that falls in Lloyd's favor is Dillon is significantly more similar to Jacobs from a stylistic perspective than he was to Jones. Dillon was a better candidate for short-yardage and goal-line situations than Jones was. Jacobs should eat into a portion of Dillon's workload. When the Packers want to get a different type of back on the field, Lloyd, not Dillon, should be LaFleur's go-to option.
I'm also not convinced Dillon will make the Packers' 53-man roster out of training camp. Drafting Lloyd indicates they weren't fully satisfied with Dillon as their RB2. General manager Brian Gutekunst could release Dillon without facing any financial penalty. The Packers would save $1.2 million against the 2024 cap with zero dead money.
Lloyd is an exciting rusher who blends lateral agility with burst and strength. The Packers drafted him with a top-100 selection because they envision him playing a legitimate role in their offense. He’s going to be their biggest home-run threat. Don't be shocked if Lloyd consistently spells Jacobs in LaFleur's by-committee backfield this season.
