Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the NFL’s passing yards leader (4,624) in 2023. That performance has positioned Tagovailoa to sign a potentially record-breaking extension later this offseason. Leading the league in passing yards can change one’s career trajectory.
With NFL training camps approximately five weeks away, it’s time to look ahead to some never-too-early passing yard leader candidates. Several trigger-happy quarterbacks will attempt to throw for 5,000-plus passing yards after no signal-caller achieved that last season. That could be required to dethrone Tagovailoa.
BetOnline’s NFL futures prop betting landscape for the 2024 passing yard leader has taken shape. The league is in its golden era of quarterback performances. The top 10 options shake out as follows:
Patrick Mahomes (5/1)
CJ Stroud (7/1)
Dak Prescott (15/2)
Jared Goff (15/2)
Joe Burrow (8/1)
Tua Tagovailoa (8/1)
Matthew Stafford (12/1)
Josh Allen (18/1)
Kirk Cousins (18/1)
Jordan Love (20/1)
THE FAVORITE: PATRICK MAHOMES
Patrick Mahomes was the 2022 passing yards leader with a career-high 5,250. Mahomes' numbers took a significant step backward in 2023 despite the Chiefs winning another Super Bowl. The two-time MVP threw for just 4,183 yards, his lowest output as a starting quarterback since he was limited to 14 appearances in 2019.
Mahomes placed sixth in passing yards. His 261.4 air-yards per contest and 7.0 yards per attempt were career-low marks. A lack of high-end talent at the pass-catching positions besides Travis Kelce had an impact on Mahomes' statistical performance.
Similar questions loom heading into the 2024 campaign. Rashee Rice is going through off-field incidents. How quickly will rookie receiver Xavier Worthy contribute? Is free-agent signing Marquise "Hollywood" Brown a bounce-back candidate? These players will help determine Mahomes' fate.
MY PICK: C.J. STROUD
C.J. Stroud absolutely lit the league on fire as a rookie. The former Ohio State standout finished eighth in passing yards with 4,108 despite missing two games through injury. His average of 273.9 yards per game ranked first in the league among all quarterbacks who made at least 10 appearances. Stroud's average depth of target of 9.3 yards ranked second behind just Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis (11.1), according to Pro Football Focus' charting.
Texans general manager Nick Caserio continued investing in Stroud's development this offseason. Six-time 1,000-yard receiver Stefon Diggs was acquired from the Buffalo Bills via a blockbuster offseason trade. Stroud's 2023 go-to target Nico Collins was signed to a long-term extension, and Tank Dell is recovering well from season-ending surgery. A 5,000-yard passing season could be on the horizon.
DON’T FORGET ABOUT: TUA TAGOVAILOA
Four quarterbacks are considered favorites ahead of Tagovailoa according to BetOnline’s odds, and a fifth signal-caller (Joe Burrow) shares his 8/1 odds. That feels borderline disrespectful considering he’s the reigning passing yards champion. There’s also plenty of reason to believe Tagovailoa is capable of repeating last season’s efforts.
Tagovailoa is entering his third season in offensive genius Mike McDaniel’s system. The Dolphins also signed Jaylen Waddle to an extension, ensuring he and Tyreek Hill will be in Miami for years to come. Tagovailoa should be more comfortable than ever before.
