Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is expected to enjoy an excellent debut campaign. With no questions over whether or not he's the starting signal-caller (Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy can't say the same), Daniels can simply focus on mastering the offense throughout training camp. The dual-threat playmaker could even set the single-season QB rushing yards record if all goes well.
Only four quarterbacks have rushed for 575 or more yards as a rookie. Robert Griffin III set a new single-season record with 815 yards in 2012 after Cam Newton initially made history in 2011 with 706. In 2018, both Lamar Jackson (695) and Josh Allen (631) threatened those figures. Together, they make up the Mount Rushmore of rookie rushing performances.
Griffin's record is an incredibly impressive mark that's already sat atop the all-time leaderboard for more than a decade. Daniels will have to be historically productive on the ground to rewrite the record books. Daniels' background at LSU insinuates it's within the realm of possibility though.
Removing sacks from the equation, which the NCAA counts toward rushing stats, Daniels accumulated 488 career carries across five college football campaigns for 3,990 yards and 34 touchdowns. Daniels elevated his ground game to new heights at LSU in 2023. The Tigers standout rushed for 1,134 yards via 135 carries (figures that includes 22 sacks).
Daniels averaged 94.5 rushing yards per game (12 appearances in 2023), and again, that's with sacks included. If Daniels were to average that throughout a 17-game NFL season, he'd rush for 1,606 yards, nearly doubling Griffin's record, and would even threaten to lead the entire league (running backs included) in rushing. That's obviously not realistic, but it puts his Heisman-winning 2023 campaign in context.
If Daniels averages even half (47.25) of his 2023 weekly output, which feels infinitely more realistic, he'd conclude a 17-game NFL campaign with 803 rushing yards. That would place the San Bernardino, California native within 12 yards of Griffin's record. Now we're talking.
They're obviously different players in different situations, but Griffin averaged 54.3 rushing yards per game throughout his record-breaking season. Griffin actually averaged more yards per game as a rookie than he did during his final season at Baylor (53.7).
Newton averaged 44.1 ground yards per outing when he set the record in 2011, slightly less than half of his 105 yards-per-game mark at Auburn in 2020 (1,473 yards in 13 games, 20 touchdowns!).
Allen actually averaged 52.6 in 2018 but only appeared in 12 games, hence his lower total. He didn’t unlock his rushing potential until reaching the NFL, having rushed for only 204 yards during his final year at Wyoming. Jackson averaged 43.4 rushing yards during his rookie season, versus 123.15 at Louisville in 2017.
With Allen, Jackson, Griffin, and Newton all averaging between 43.4 and 54.3 rushing yards per game as rookies, expecting Daniels to average around 47.25 rushing yards per contest qualifies as a perfectly fair expectation given his skill set. Daniels can flat-out fly as one of the more elusive quarterbacks in recent college football history. He could actually break Griffin's record.
