Can Keon Coleman Lead Bills' Receiving Corps?

Buffalo Bills rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman led the offense in receptions (4), targets (5), and receiving yards (51) in Sunday's 34-28 Week 1 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. It was an impressive debut for Coleman. He looked capable of leading the Bills' receiving corps this season.

Coleman was an extremely divisive prospect throughout the pre-draft process. Some praised his ability to physically overwhelm cornerbacks in contested catch opportunities, while others criticized his separation ability and long speed after he ran an official 4.61 40 at the NFL Scouting Combine. It’s early, but Coleman initially quieted those concerns against the Cardinals on Sunday.

Coleman's most impressive reception was a 28-yard gain early in the fourth quarter. Starting quarterback Josh Allen was facing a 2nd-and-12 in Arizona territory while nursing a small 24-20 advantage. Coleman's physical skill set was on display as he dominated the corner at the catch point. Two snaps later, Allen rushed for a six-yard touchdown, extending Buffalo's lead to two scores.

The Bills are attempting to replace Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this season, their top two wideouts for several years running. Allen only attempted 23 passes on Sunday as the offense ran the ball 33 times, but Coleman was his most-targeted receiver—no other option came within one target of the rookie playmaker. It indicates Allen already trusts Coleman. Coleman saw a 21.7% target share. Allen targeted the former Florida State standout once in the end zone, where his 6-foot-3, 215-pound frame will be an asset this season. 

Coleman ran 27 total routes, leading to a 90% route participation rate. His four targets totaled 46 air yards with a 27.7% air share. His average depth of target (aDoT) was a healthy 9.2 yards. Coleman was running legitimate routes far beyond the line of scrimmage, and Allen was consistently searching for him near the first-down marker.

Coleman's afternoon could have been even more impressive. On this missed opportunity, Allen was a little trigger-happy to take his check-down. Coleman appears to create separation on a deep-developing route that had explosive touchdown potential.

Defenses are still adjusting to Buffalo’s inexperienced receiving corps. Reviewing the All-22 shows that Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid received a comical amount of attention from the Cardinals’ secondary. It helped release Coleman to make plays.

Arizona's opposing cornerbacks played tight coverage on Coleman. The average cushion between him and cornerbacks at the time of the snap was 4.8 yards, according to Next Gen Stats, 10th-fewest among all qualifying receivers in Week 1. Coleman created an average of 2.7 yards of separation. Not known for his yards-after-catch ability, Coleman at least met expectations with 3.3 yards after catch per reception, compared to an expected yards after catch per reception (xYAC/R) of 3.6.

The film matches the analytics. Coleman was extremely productive and effective with and without the ball for Buffalo's new-look passing offense in Week 1. Coleman appeared capable of leading their receiving corps this season.