Is Keon Coleman On Verge Of Breaking Out?

Although it has only been five weeks, the Buffalo Bills have already experienced a tale of two seasons thus far.

Three games into the season, Buffalo was being anointed as a clear Super Bowl favorite, and for obvious reasons. When you outscore your first three opponents by an astonishing 112-48 margin, including consecutive primetime victories against teams with winning records the previous year (Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars), that is exactly what you would expect to happen. What wasn’t expected was what followed: back-to-back road losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans, the latter of which featured Josh Allen completing just nine of his 30 pass attempts.

Unfortunately for the Bills, the Super Bowl is not given after three weeks. On the bright side, it isn’t given after five weeks either, With the AFC East struggling, there is still plenty of time for them to make a championship push. To do so, though, they will need to address some notable concerns with their offense. While they have scored the third-most points in the NFL, they have benefited tremendously from the best turnover margin in the NFL, which is directly correlated with the third-best average starting field position. Nevertheless, they rank just 19th in yards/play, while Allen’s 42.3% passing success rate is by far the lowest of his career since 2019. In other words, the scoring has been there, but the efficiency has not been, and it’s starting to rear its ugly head in a hurry.

After trading star receiver Stefon Diggs to the Texans and losing receiver Gabriel Davis to the Jaguars in free agency, the Bills were always going to undergo an offensive transformation. For context, those two were responsible for 44.2% of the team’s targets in 2023, as well as more than half of their receiving touchdowns (51.7%). As expected, the team’s top target shares come from incumbent players like receiver Khalil Shakir and second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid. The real surprise, however, has come from which offseason acquisition has played the largest role alongside them. Although they did sign receiver Curtis Samuel in free agency, he has played just 35% of the team’s snaps and has not started a game for them yet. Rather, it is second-round rookie Keon Coleman who has thrust himself into the spotlight.

Considering how drastic of a need they had at the receiver position, the Bills’ decision to trade out of the first round multiple times was a fascinating one, especially since both trades involved the other team trading up for a wide receiver. Ultimately, though, Buffalo was able to move down five spots and still draft Coleman, and he has validated their decision thus far. All it took was one game for him to lead the team in targets (five) and earn praise from our own Justin Melo in an impressive NFL debut, and while he only had one catch over the next two weeks, it resulted in his first-career professional touchdown. Since then, he has accumulated 100 receiving yards on four catches, including a remarkable touchdown in Houston last week.

All told, Coleman is producing a 134.1 passer rating when targeted. That’s the second-best among Buffalo receivers and nearly double that of the next-highest mark (75.2). Whether that is a compliment for Coleman or a reflection of the rest of the receiving corps is up to interpretation, though those two are not mutually exclusive. Essentially, Coleman’s underlying numbers have been remarkably similar to Davis' in 2023.

The main difference thus far has been a combination of target volume favoring Davis and production after the catch favoring Coleman, but as the season grows older, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see those numbers regulate as well. It isn’t uncommon for a rookie receiver to become more involved in an offense as the season goes on, and NFL Next Gen Stats indicates that Coleman is more than doubling his expected production after catch (largely a product of his last touchdown). In fact, his expected production after the catch mirrors Davis’ in 2023, per NFL Next Gen Stats, further supporting the comparison.

Although not known for his straight-line speed (4.61 40-yard dash), Coleman’s size (6’3”, 213 pounds) stands out, as indicated by our own scouting report on him this past December:

“Keon Coleman is a rare physical talent at the position boasting outstanding size and strength but also showcasing the movement skills of a smaller receiver. He projects as an immediate WR1 at the next level.”

While Weissman did indicate Coleman needed to further refine his route-running abilities, he emphasized that the Florida State product’s ability to separate similarly to a shifty slot receiver was rare for his size, and interesting when coupled with the fact he is averaging less separation than all but one player in the entire NFL (per NFL Next Gen Stats). Former All-Pro receiver Steve Smith recently stated on Underdog Fantasy’s 89 podcast that he believed Coleman needed to receive more playing time as a wide receiver, and the discrepancy between the scouting report and the separation numbers may support that. That being said, with them lacking established targets on the outside, you would imagine that he will continue to serve as more of an outside contested-catch threat for at least this season.

Bills head coach Sean McDermott recently indicated that he had some concerns with the Bills’ receiving corps, and with several impact veteran receivers potentially available for trade, Buffalo should be expected to explore outside acquisitions to address that need. Nevertheless, that isn’t the fault of Coleman, who has quickly established himself as one of the team’s top impact weapons. 

Still just 21 years old, his future appears to be tremendously bright, and the Bills certainly could use his services for not just this season, but as a long-term building block to support Allen as well. At the very least, their faith in him is paying notable dividends in the early going.