The 5-4 Denver Broncos are currently holding onto the final wild-card spot in the AFC despite being blown out by the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. There were few positive takeaways from that humbling. One was the performance of rookie running back Audric Estime.
Estime rushed for a career-high 35 yards via five carries in mop-up duty versus the Ravens. He averaged an effective seven yards per carry. Head coach Sean Payton recently said that the performance could earn him more opportunities moving forward.
Sean Payton said he thinks Audric Estime will see an increased workload in the second half of the season.
— Parker Gabriel (@ParkerJGabriel) November 4, 2024
Estime had been sparingly used in recent outings after fumbling twice on the first nine touches of his career. He also suffered an injury in Week 1 that landed him on IR. Payton is clearly intrigued by his skill set because he afforded him a chance to re-earn his trust against Baltimore. Estime was impressive and succeeded in avoiding another turnover.
Regular backfield starter Javonte Williams has struggled mightily this season, cracking the door for Estime to steal carries. Williams hasn't rushed for 90-plus yards in any game this season and was particularly poor in Denver's latest two contests. He totaled 86 yards over that stretch, averaging 2.96 yards per carry.
In fact, Williams' season-long average of 3.83 yards per carry ranked 38th in the league. Using minimum qualifiers, his yards after contact per carry (2.42) rank dead-last (30th), according to Pro Football Focus, and his elusive score (44.4) ranks 26th. Next Gen Stats possesses a similar viewpoint. Williams is averaging -0.52 (yes, negative) rushing yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/ATT), per NGS, ranking 44th among 47 qualifying backs.
I think we all know Javonte Williams won’t be back next year so we should just start feeding Audric Estime a lot more. I know he has fumbling problems to start his career but he’s looked like our best RB when he doesn’t fumble the ball (😂) pic.twitter.com/VYYYzOOC0D
— Michael 🇲🇽 (@RespectMyCos) November 4, 2024
Williams' total rushing yards over expected (RYOE) is -53. Denver's offensive line has been more productive than Williams' success rate indicates. The Broncos' primary ball-carrier is simply producing fewer rushing yards than expected. He’s not making defenders miss in the backfield, nor is he creating yards after initial contact.
Williams is playing out the final year of his rookie contract and his play may not warrant extension discussions. Perhaps the Broncos were already preparing for his inevitable departure when they drafted Estime at No. 147 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Broncos are currently striking the balance between developing youth and maintaining postseason competitiveness on the field. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix appears ahead of schedule, and ascending receivers like Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin are logging notable snap counts as well. Estime should join them on a youth-infused offense at Williams' slight expense.
The Broncos rank 15th in the league in rushing, but that’s largely because Nix has rushed for nearly 300 yards himself. Even Jaleel McLaughlin is averaging more yards per attempt (3.9) than Williams has this season. Denver’s running backs have rushed for just three touchdowns, with Nix (4) out-scoring all three players combined.
Payton is building the Broncos offense for the future, while simultaneously achieving ahead-of-schedule results. The rushing attack desperately requires a jolt of energy if it's to improve down the stretch. Estime deserves more reps moving forward.
