The 2025 NFL campaign is approximately one-quarter of the way complete. The six first-year NFL head coaches are enjoying varying degrees of success and failure. Are any of the first-year coaches at risk of being one-and-done? Let's revisit and analyze all six ongoing situations.
Aaron Glenn: New York Jets (0-5)
Aaron Glenn's New York Jets are the league's lone winless team through five weeks. The Jets are rebuilding after moving on from veterans like Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. They've been occasionally competitive, losing one-score games to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers. They've also been awful in various categories, with the worst turnover differential (-8) in the NFL, and committing 42 total penalties, third-most in the league. They're playing hard for Glenn, and this is a patient rebuild with obvious growing pains.
Kellen Moore: New Orleans Saints (1-4)
The New Orleans Saints were considered preseason favorites to earn the No. 1 overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. They're still in contention for the top pick, but recently claimed their first victory by upsetting the New York Giants in Week 5. Starting quarterback Spencer Rattler is playing well under Kellen Moore, potentially complicating their future quarterback plans. Coach Moore has a long leash.
Pete Carroll: Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)
Pete Carroll is at the biggest risk of going one-and-done. The Las Vegas Raiders decided to put off the rebuild by hiring a 74-year-old coach and acquiring a 34-year-old quarterback via trade. Geno Smith is struggling and the Raiders have lost four consecutive contests. They probably have too much respect for Carroll's resume to fire him so quickly, but a mutual parting of the ways could be on the table if the aging head coach is disinterested in overseeing a full-blown rebuild, which is probably what’s really required here.
Ben Johnson: Chicago Bears (2-2)
Ben Johnson was hired by the Chicago Bears to develop quarterback Caleb Williams. In the previous two games, Williams has thrown for 500 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception in consecutive victories. They appear to be wild-card contenders in a tough NFC North. Johnson is exactly what the Bears hoped he'd be. If the sophomore No. 1 overall quarterback continues trending upwards, this will be considered the home-run hire everyone thought it'd be by season's end.
Brian Schottenheimer: Dallas Cowboys (2-2-1)
Brian Schottenheimer was dealt a tough hand when he had little to no say in the Dallas Cowboys' decision to trade Micah Parsons. Despite that, the Cowboys are a competitive 2-2-1 and have started well under Schottenheimer. Though defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is dealing with the same Parsons-related challenge, he's more at risk of being replaced, with his defense allowing a league-high 412 yards and 30.8 points per game.
Mike Vrabel: New England Patriots (3-2)
The New England Patriots were thrilled to have the opportunity to appoint franchise legend Mike Vrabel as their head coach. It’s paid immediate dividends, with Vrabel currently having the best record of any first-year coach. The Patriots just executed a stunning upset victory over the Buffalo Bills in primetime, and they've already matched their 2024 win total.
